How Dealer Bust Percentages Affect Blackjack Strategy

November 19, 2009 | Article Category: Blackjack

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What is "Going Bust?"

When a player, or the dealer, goes bust in blackjack, it means that they have reached a total hand value of over 21 points. Players immediately lose the hand when they go bust, and will lose their bet to the house. If the dealer goes bust, and the player did not, the player will win the hand. If both the dealer and the player both go bust, the house will still take the player’s bet.

What is the Dealer’s Bust Percentage?

The dealer bust percentage is the likely percentage showing how often the dealer is likely to go bust when showing specific cards. Although players will only know the dealer’s card that is face-up, they will be able to make an educated choice as to how to proceed with their betting by seeing the dealer’s card, and the two cards they have in their own blackjack hand.

Basic Blackjack Strategy and the Dealer’s Bust Percentage

Basic blackjack strategy is based on simple mathematical principles. By following these basic principles, players are able to substantially reduce the online casino’s house edge. When coupling basic blackjack strategy with information gathered about the dealer’s bust percentage, as well as looking at their own cards, players will have a better idea as to when they should hit, stand, or double down. This helps players to reduce the online casino’s house edge even further, giving them the best chance of coming out as winners.

Most Likely Dealer Bust Card Values

The most likely bust card values that the dealer will hold are the 5, the 6, and the 4. As far as the dealer is concerned, holding one of these cards is the worst kind of hand, since the likelihood of going bust is greater than with other cards. There is a 42% chance of going bust with either the 5 or the 6, and a 40% chance of going bust with the 4. When the dealer shows one of these card values, it is a good time for the player to double down if they are holding a good hand.

Least Likely Dealer Bust Card Values

The least likely bust card values that the dealer will hold are the 9, the 10 and the Ace.

Blackjack Dealer Bust Percentages

While looking at the blackjack dealer bust percentages, remember that these percentages are based only on the times that the house will go bust, without taking into account the times that the player will also go bust in the same round.

The Ace has a 17% bust percentage.
The 10 has a 23% bust percentage.
The 9 has a 23% bust percentage.
The 8 has a 24% bust percentage.
The 7 has a 26% bust percentage.
The 6 has a 42% bust percentage.
The 5 has a 42% bust percentage.
The 4 has a 40% bust percentage.
The 3 has a 37% bust percentage.
The 2 has a 35% bust percentage.

In Summary

If you use the bust percentage information wisely, and combine it with basic blackjack strategy, it is a great tool to help you confirm decisions that you would like to make. It is best used to confirm a basic blackjack strategy decision.

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